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Friday, October 31, 2008
Kilitical Discussion
Anybody think the Bradley effect is going to show up on Tuesday? I know it's been considered immaterial in modern elections, but we're talking about Pennsyltucky, the Heartland, yo. A lot of rubes out there can be highly susceptible to social desirability bias. And mange for that matter.
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I'd be shocked if we saw a Bradley effect Tuesday. I think most of the discussion about it has been pre-CYA work by the news agencies. I really do think we'll get an Obama landslide. The only thing I'm still wondering about is if we'll get a Democratic supermajority in the Senate. fivethirtyeight.com has the odds around 22% for that now.. so not likely.
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